In 1981, Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman published a study in Science about a hypothetical epidemic threatening 600 people. One group was shown an option that would save 200 people. Another group was shown an option with a one-third chance of saving all 600 and a two-thirds chance of saving nobody. The descriptions carried the same mathematical value, yet participants did not choose in the same way. When the option was expressed as lives saved, they were more cautious. When the equivalent result was expressed as lives lost, they were more willing to take the risk.
⬛ CONFIDENTIAL nhat141210/data 8/15/2026 1 min read
The same calculation changes when the frame changes
In 1981, Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman published a study in Science about a hypothetical epidemic threatening 600 people. One group was shown an option that would save 200 people. Another group was shown an option with a one-third chance of saving all 600 and a two-thirds chance of saving nobody. The descriptions carried the same mathematical value, yet participants did not choose in the same way. When the option was expressed as lives saved, they were more cautious. When the equivalent result was expressed as lives lost, they were more willing to take the risk.
In 1981, Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman published a study in Science about a hypothetical epidemic threatening 600 people. One group was shown an option that would save 200 people. Another group was shown an option with a one-third chance of saving all 600 and a two-thirds chance of saving nobody. The descriptions carried the same mathematical value, yet participants did not choose in the same way. When the option was expressed as lives saved, they were more cautious. When the equivalent result was expressed as lives lost, they were more willing to take the risk.
In 1981, Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman published a study in Science about a hypothetical epidemic threatening 600 people. One group was shown an option that would save 200 people. Another group was shown an option with a one-third chance of saving all 600 and a two-thirds chance of saving nobody. The descriptions carried the same mathematical value, yet participants did not choose in the same way. When the option was expressed as lives saved, they were more cautious. When the equivalent result was expressed as lives lost, they were more willing to take the risk.
In 1981, Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman published a study in Science about a hypothetical epidemic threatening 600 people. One group was shown an option that would save 200 people. Another group was shown an option with a one-third chance of saving all 600 and a two-thirds chance of saving nobody. The descriptions carried the same mathematical value, yet participants did not choose in the same way. When the option was expressed as lives saved, they were more cautious. When the equivalent result was expressed as lives lost, they were more willing to take the risk.